Research on a hydrate saturation prediction method based on an analysis of factors that influence the prediction accuracy of sea area hydrate saturation

It has been predicted that China about 80 billion tons of oil equivalent natural gas hydrate resources in its sea. conducted at least six drilling and two trial exploitations the South Sea, achieving good results. However, these achievements do not necessarily mean research area can support commercial exploitation. Only when reach a certain scale will it be valuable for A reliable quantitative prediction method is necessary to clarify area. classical Wood method’s application suspended saturation Shenhu maritime results large error; analysis shows an unreliable measurement reservoir parameters main reason error. In order influence parameters, this paper—by analyzing sources firstly indicates inaccurate three parameters—matrix composition, porosity, density—is cause Then, using design different parameter schemes conduct comparative analysis, paper points out porosity density may lead errors, while measurements matrix composition have relatively small impact on accuracy. Further absolute value error caused by uncertainty synthetic sometimes larger than sum single uncertainty. addressing problem errors proposes based non-hydrate correction—called “Wood-Bao method”. Simulation actual data studies show effect superior method.